Approval chances for spot altcoin ETFs are rising sharply as the US Securities and Exchange Commission intensifies discussions with issuers. Leading the push are XRP, Solana, and Litecoin, each now seen with a 95% chance of gaining ETF approval this year.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have raised their forecast, pointing to increasing signs that the SEC is preparing to approve multiple crypto ETFs. The analysts noted that direct communication between the SEC and asset managers is among the factors that indicate the regulatory body is drawing near to the approval of spot offerings.
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Altcoin ETF filings are in advanced stages, with the SEC recognizing several revised S-1s and 19b-4 applications. The XRP application, supported by Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Bitwise, has been officially received, and the final decision will be made by October 17.
The Solana application has also been accepted, with roughly the same review deadline of October 10.
Bettors at Polymarket also have much confidence in approvals. As per the existing odds, there is a 98 percent possibility that XRP will be listed as an ETF, 91 percent with Solana, and 71 percent with Dogecoin. Such projections are closely related to industry analyses and exhibit wide optimism among investors.
SEC Index Inclusion Boosts Confidence in Altcoin ETF Approval
The SEC recently approved the Nasdaq Crypto US Settlement Price Index, which includes XRP, SOL, ADA, and XLM. This move is considered a significant step toward legitimizing altcoins within regulated financial products.
Altcoins have also become popular, with analysts estimating a 90% approval chance for Cardano, Polkadot, Avalanche, Dogecoin, and HBAR. At 60 percent, SUI is lagging, with the main reason being the absence of futures markets and regulatory clarity.
Nate Geraci, an ETF expert, thinks that 2025 will probably be a breakout year and that more advanced products will be on offer, such as support for staking and in-kind redemptions. He also foresees more entrants in the field, such as BlackRock, with interest spreading.
With XRP, Solana, and Litecoin at the forefront, ETF approvals are now seen as highly likely. The SEC’s active engagement and recent index moves indicate that green lights could arrive within months.
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