- Retail traders price a 73% probability for XRP above $2.75
- Robinhood derivatives show growing confidence in XRP’s 2026 rebound
- Nearly half the market expects XRP to revisit the $3 range
Retail traders are increasingly positioning for a potential XRP rally in 2026, driven by fresh derivatives data signaling strong bullish expectations. According to data from Robinhood, traders are assigning a 73% probability that XRP will climb above the $2.75 level before the year ends. The figures come from Robinhood’s Event Contracts, a binary-style product that allows market participants to speculate on specific price outcomes.
This surge in interest reflects growing confidence among retail investors, even as the broader crypto market remains uneven. XRP’s association with Ripple and its role in cross-border payments continue to keep it in focus, especially as traders search for assets with rebound potential.
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Robinhood Event Contracts Signal Strong Bullish Bets
The Event Contracts referenced in the data allow traders to purchase positions priced between $0.01 and $0.99. If XRP reaches the stated price target by the deadline, the contract settles at $1.00. If not, it expires worthless. According to Robinhood’s data, demand for contracts tied to XRP crossing $2.75 remains notably high, reinforcing the bullish outlook reflected in the 73% probability.
Beyond the $2.75 level, traders are also eyeing higher targets. Market pricing shows a near-even split on XRP reclaiming $3.00, with contracts implying a 53% chance. Additionally, contracts tied to a $3.25 move trade around 44¢, suggesting that nearly half of participants believe XRP could extend a rally into the $3 range.
XRP’s recent price action adds context to this optimism. The token entered the year trading between $1.95 and $2.00, supported by strong buying pressure. That momentum carried XRP to a year-to-date high near $2.40. However, selling pressure quickly emerged, pushing the price back below key psychological levels at $2.10 and $2.00.
As of January 25, XRP trades at $1.89, wiping out its 2026 gains. Despite this pullback, activity in derivatives markets suggests traders view the decline as temporary rather than structural.
Market Outlook Remains Focused on a $3 Break
Market participants continue to track developments around Ripple, including reported banking partnerships and institutional engagement, which many see as supportive factors for XRP’s long-term valuation. While price volatility persists, the concentration of bets above $2.75 indicates that traders expect renewed momentum later in the year.
The alignment between headline probability and derivatives pricing underscores the extent of the shift in retail sentiment. XRP remains under pressure in the spot market, yet expectations for a breakout continue to build beneath the surface.
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