- XRP structure remains intact but awaits decisive breakout confirmation.
- Weekly reclaim required before $15 to $31 targets.
- Wave 2 correction continues despite growing bullish expectations.
Crypto market analyst Egrag Crypto has released a new Elliott Wave reality check on XRP, outlining the structural requirements that must be met before the asset can target the $15 to $31 range.
In his latest post on X, the analyst stated that XRP previously completed an 814% impulsive Wave 1 expansion and is now positioned within a corrective Wave 2 phase. According to Egrag Crypto, the broader bullish structure remains valid inside a long-term ascending channel, but Wave 3 cannot begin unless price reclaims the prior Wave 1 high on a weekly close.
The 814% expansion marked a strong impulsive leg that respected channel resistance and displayed sustained momentum. Consequently, he classifies that advance as technically sound under Elliott Wave principles. That move now serves as the reference point for measuring the current correction and future projections.
Since that peak, XRP has retraced within common 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci levels. In crypto markets, retracements can extend beyond 61.8% before a new impulse forms. However, price has not broken below the origin of Wave 1, which keeps the macro count intact. Additionally, XRP continues to trade within its long term ascending channel, reinforcing structural stability.
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Wave 3 Confirmation Requires Structural Reclaim
Egrag Crypto emphasized that Wave 3 confirmation depends entirely on reclaiming the prior Wave 1 high with a weekly close. A decisive breakout above that level would shift the structure from corrective to impulsive.
Moreover, momentum expansion must accompany the reclaim to validate strength. Until that occurs, the market remains in Wave 2. Short-term rallies do not confirm a new cycle high. Therefore, traders continue to focus on weekly closes rather than reacting to temporary price spikes.
Fibonacci extension models project potential Wave 3 targets between $15 and $31. These projections derive from the 1.618 to 3.618 extensions of the 814% Wave 1 move. Historically, Wave 3 often becomes the strongest leg in an Elliott sequence. However, projections remain conditional until structural confirmation appears.
What It Means for XRP Market Participants
This assessment signals that bullish price targets remain possible but unconfirmed, as long as XRP trades below the prior Wave 1 high and the structure remains corrective. Consequently, expectations of an immediate breakout lack technical confirmation while the ascending macro channel continues to support the broader bullish framework.
Price has respected long-term support boundaries, which prevents invalidation of the larger count and keeps the setup technically alive despite ongoing consolidation. Importantly, a weekly structural reclaim could significantly shift sentiment and positioning, potentially attracting stronger participation and increased momentum.
Conversely, failure to reclaim would likely extend Wave 2 and prolong consolidation, reinforcing the current corrective phase. In conclusion, Egrag Crypto’s Elliott Wave reality check centers on structural discipline, as XRP may target $15 to $31, but only a confirmed weekly reclaim of prior highs will signal that Wave 3 has officially begun.
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