- CW says XRP is still following its long-term macro cycle, with the current sideways range acting as a classic retail shakeout phase.
- The multi-cycle structure mirrors XRP’s 2014–2017 pattern, suggesting the asset is nearing the end of Phase 3 before a potential breakout.
- Breakout targets include a return to the all-time high and a possible long-term move toward $21.50.
Crypto analyst CW has issued a new market update asserting that XRP’s current trading behavior is fully aligned with its long-term structure. According to CW, the asset is undergoing a classic retail flush-out phase, a period where impatient investors exit before a major market expansion begins.
“Looking at the big picture, nothing has changed,” CW said. “XRP’s current range is the process of driving out retail investors before the real rally begins.” His commentary was accompanied by a detailed multi-cycle chart showing XRP repeating the same structural pattern that preceded its previous parabolic surge.
Multi-Cycle Analysis Suggests XRP Is Completing Phase 3 Before the Breakout
The chart provided by CW outlines a recurring four-phase macro cycle that XRP has historically followed. It includes a long-term accumulation stage, a compression phase inside a descending structure, a multi-year consolidation period inside a large symmetrical triangle, and finally an aggressive breakout into price discovery.
CW illustrates that this same structure appeared between 2014 and 2017, ultimately leading to XRP’s explosive rally to its all-time high.
Also Read: Two Key Support Levels XRP Holders Should Pay Attention To
Looking at the big picture, nothing has changed.$XRP‘s current range is the process of driving out a retail investors before the real rally begins. pic.twitter.com/fbzAVmzEn3
— CW (@CW8900) December 2, 2025
The analysis suggests that from 2018 to 2025, XRP has been mirroring those earlier movements and is now nearing the completion of the third phase, the point where price tightens within the triangle before breaking out.
XRP’s Current Range Considered a Shakeout Zone
According to the shared analysis, XRP’s present sideways trading behavior is not a signal of weakness but part of the natural design of this stage of the cycle. Historically, this phase is associated with declining retail participation, lower volatility, fading enthusiasm, and growing impatience among short-term traders.
Despite this, the chart shows that XRP continues to respect its long-term upward trendline, maintaining structural integrity even against broader market fluctuations. CW argues that large players typically accumulate during this phase while retail traders exit due to frustration or fear, creating the conditions for the next major move.
The chart also outlines two long-term breakout targets. The first is a full retest of XRP’s all-time high. The second is a Fibonacci 6.618 extension, indicating a potential long-term upside target of around $21.50. This projection mirrors XRP’s previous cycle, where the asset returned to its all-time high before surging into a dramatic expansion phase.
The recreated pattern suggests that if XRP breaks out from its years-long consolidation pattern, the move could unfold quickly and with considerable force, similar to the behavior seen during its 2017 bull run.
Analyst: Structure Remains Bullish Despite Short-Term Noise
CW emphasizes that short-term volatility and market frustration do not reflect the underlying macro picture. “Nothing has changed,” he reiterated, noting that the long-term structure remains intact, and the market is behaving almost identically to previous cycles.
According to his assessment, XRP is still tracking toward its next major expansion phase, and the current range is simply the precursor to a larger rally.
Also Read: 1,000,000,000 XRP Shake Markets as Ripple’s Massive Unlock Targets $2.33 Zone
