- ADA tests triangle support after failed rally at $0.87
- Bearish CHoCH and EMA rejections point to downside continuation
- Spot outflows and weakening structure pressure bulls at $0.68
Cardano (ADA) is approaching a critical technical structure as it trades at the apex of a long-term symmetrical triangle. The price is currently hovering near $0.722 after failing to hold $0.74, and downside pressure has intensified, with weekly losses exceeding 13%.
The symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart is close to resolution, and the direction of the breakout could determine ADA’s trajectory for the remainder of Q3.
Also Read: Banks Accused of Secret Plot to Kill Crypto Access, a16z Partner Warns
Technical Breakdown Confirms Bearish Momentum
ADA is now sitting near the lower end of the symmetrical triangle after failing to break descending resistance from its 2021 high. A Change of Character (CHoCH) has occurred on the daily chart after price reversed from the $0.87 peak in July. The red supply zone remains in control, and Parabolic SAR dots stay above price, indicating the trend is still bearish.
A previously established Break of Structure (BOS) near $0.875 has now been invalidated by the current CHoCH, forming an imbalance zone between $0.66 and $0.69.
EMA Rejections and Smart Money Structure Signal Breakdown Risk
On the 4-hour chart, ADA has broken below the Supertrend level at $0.78 and is now trading under the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs. The DMI confirms bearish trend strength, with -DI leading at 31.8 versus +DI at just 9.6.
Source: Tradingview
At the same time RSI readings on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts remain below 31, with MACD showing expanding bearish momentum.Bollinger Bands have widened sharply to the downside, and ADA has fallen below the lower band, indicating a volatility spike with no support reclaim yet.
The EMA cluster has acted as strong rejection, with price currently pinned under the 20 EMA ($0.76). The 200 EMA at $0.74 is also acting as resistance. If ADA fails to reclaim this zone, price could slide further toward key structure around $0.66.
Source: Tradingview
Smart Money Concepts point to a CHoCH after a failed bullish BOS, signaling a bearish imbalance that may need to be filled before any meaningful recovery.
Until ADA closes above $0.78 and flips Supertrend bullish, bearish momentum is likely to dominate. Key support remains near $0.68—the lower bound of the triangle structure.
Cardano Price Forecast Table: August 2, 2025
| Indicator/Zone | Level / Signal |
| Cardano price today | $0.722 |
| Resistance 1 | $0.760 (EMA zone) |
| Resistance 2 | $0.780 (Supertrend level) |
| Support 1 | $0.700 |
| Support 2 | $0.660 |
| RSI (1H/4H) | 30.4 / 29.9 (Oversold) |
| MACD (Short-term) | Bearish Crossover Expanding |
| Bollinger Bands (4H) | Price below lower band |
| EMA Cluster | Price below 20/50/100/200 |
| DMI | -DI leads, ADX rising |
| On-Chain Netflow (Aug 1) | -$6.34M (Net selling bias) |
| Smart Money Structure | CHoCH after failed BOS at $0.875 |
ADA Price Forecast 2025–2030
| Year | Low ($) | Average ($) | High ($) |
| 2025 | 0.660 | 0.720 | 0.840 |
| 2026 | 0.680 | 0.800 | 0.950 |
| 2027 | 0.750 | 0.890 | 1.080 |
| 2028 | 0.820 | 1.000 | 1.200 |
| 2029 | 0.900 | 1.100 | 1.300 |
| 2030 | 0.950 | 1.200 | 1.400 |
Year-by-Year Outlook
2025
ADA is consolidating near the triangle support at $0.68 after losing $0.74. If it holds this zone, a recovery toward $0.78–$0.84 is possible. Breakdown would expose $0.66 and $0.60 levels.
2026
If ADA reclaims the EMA cluster and breaks $0.78 resistance, a mean price of $0.800 could be achieved, with upper potential at $0.950 depending on market strength.
2027–2028
With ecosystem improvements and broader altcoin recovery, ADA may trend toward $1.08–$1.20. This assumes successful reaccumulation and favorable macro sentiment.
2029–2030
ADA could reach $1.30–$1.40 if adoption scales and technical structure matures. This would require reclaiming all major resistance levels formed in 2022–2024.
Conclusion
Cardano is trading near a major inflection point within a multi-year symmetrical triangle. With RSI and MACD tilted bearish, and net outflows of $6.34M on August 1, momentum remains in favor of the sellers.
A hold above $0.68 is critical to preserve long-term structure. A breakout above $0.78 would flip short-term trend bullish, but until then, ADA remains at risk of further downside in early Q3.
FAQs
1. Is Cardano currently bullish?
No. ADA has shown a bearish CHoCH and is trading below key EMAs and resistance zones.
2. What is the next key resistance zone?
$0.760 and $0.780 are the next resistances. A breakout above $0.780 could trigger recovery toward $0.84.
3. Where is the strongest support?
$0.700 is initial support, followed by $0.660 and triangle base near $0.680.
4. Can ADA reach $0.84 this year?
Yes. If buyers reclaim $0.78 and volume returns, ADA could revisit the $0.84 level.
5. What’s driving ADA’s decline?
CHoCH confirmation, EMA rejections, spot outflows, and structural triangle pressure are the main factors.
Also Read: Ripple Bank Charter Update: Fed Access and Trust License in the Works
