- Egrag Crypto highlights a shift in XRP’s long-term momentum.
- RSI holding the 44–50 zone keeps the bullish case alive, suggesting a mid-cycle reset.
- Failure to reclaim the MA could signal distribution, leading to prolonged consolidation.
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has drawn attention to a notable change in XRP’s long-term momentum, arguing that the current market cycle is behaving differently from previous ones. In a recent analysis, Egrag focused on XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key indicator used to gauge momentum and trend strength over extended periods.
According to the analyst, prior XRP cycles showed RSI consistently bouncing off its moving average (MA) before continuing higher.
In the current cycle, however, RSI has broken below its MA without producing an immediate bounce, a development Egrag describes as a meaningful momentum shift rather than routine volatility.
What the Chart Reveals About the Current Cycle
The accompanying TradingView chart highlights three major XRP cycles spanning more than a decade. In the earlier cycles, each RSI pullback toward the moving average was followed by a strong rebound, marked on the chart as “Bounce.” These rebounds aligned with sustained bullish price expansions.
In contrast, the most recent cycle shows RSI slipping below the moving average and failing to reclaim it so far, labeled as “No Bounce.” Despite this, RSI remains above the historically important 44–50 zone, which has previously acted as a structural support area during bull markets.
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#XRP Monthly RSI – Bull vs Bear Scenarios:
This cycle is different. In the last two cycles, RSI bounced off its MA and continued higher. This time, RSI broke below the MA with no bounce, a real momentum shift.
🟢 Bullish case (~55–60%):
▫️This break does not automatically mean… pic.twitter.com/EjQbj3VFCT
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) December 16, 2025
This positioning suggests that while momentum has weakened, it has not yet collapsed into a confirmed bearish regime.
Bullish Scenario: A Deeper Reset, Not a Bear Market
Egrag Crypto assigns a roughly 55–60% probability to a bullish outcome. In this scenario, the RSI breakdown below the moving average would represent a mid-cycle momentum reset rather than the start of a full bear market.
For this bullish case to remain valid, the analyst says several conditions must be met: RSI needs to stabilize within the 44–50 zone, reclaim its moving average, form a higher low, and turn upward without setting new RSI lows.
If these conditions are satisfied, the current structure would support the idea of a delayed continuation, implying that the broader XRP cycle could extend rather than fail prematurely.
Source: Egrag Crypto/x
Bearish Scenario: Distribution and Prolonged Consolidation
On the other hand, Egrag places the bearish probability at around 40–45%. From this perspective, the break below the RSI moving average cannot be ignored. If RSI fails to reclaim the MA, loses the 50 level decisively, and continues to post lower highs near that threshold, momentum would likely shift into distribution.
Under this outcome, XRP could enter a longer corrective or consolidation phase, where price rallies are countertrend moves rather than the start of sustained upside. In such an environment, time, rather than sharp price drops, becomes the primary source of market pressure for investors.
Key Levels to Watch Going Forward
The chart underscores the importance of the 44–50 RSI zone as a make-or-break area. Holding this range keeps the bullish continuation thesis alive, while a sustained breakdown below it would strengthen the bearish case.
The moving average itself also remains a critical reclaim level, acting as a dividing line between trend continuation and structural weakness. Egrag Crypto’s conclusion is cautious rather than alarmist. The analyst stresses that this is not a confirmed market top, but also not business as usual.
Momentum has shifted enough that XRP now requires clear confirmation before its next major move. As the cycle develops, traders and long-term holders alike will be watching whether RSI can recover key levels, or whether the current divergence marks the start of a more extended cooling-off period for XRP.
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