- Shutdown fears intensify as CLARITY Act delays unsettle markets and lawmakers
- Prediction markets signal rising chaos amid budget deadlock and stalled legislation
- Political resistance and industry pushback deepen uncertainty around CLARITY Act progress
Rising shutdown anxiety is reshaping Washington as the CLARITY Act remains stalled in Congress, while markets increasingly reflect concern over renewed political disruption. Consequently, uncertainty now weighs heavily on both legislative planning and investor sentiment.
Prediction markets show a sharp shift in expectations as budget negotiations remain frozen, with traders rapidly adjusting their outlook. Polymarket data now places the probability of another U.S. government shutdown at 78%, representing a 69% jump within 24 hours.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump added momentum to shutdown fears during a Fox Business interview, where he stated the U.S. could probably face another Democrat driven shutdown. Those remarks reinforced market concerns already building around persistent congressional gridlock.
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Democratic resistance tightens the legislative bottleneck
At the same time, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hardened Democratic opposition to the spending bill, stating on X that Democrats would block advancement. The dispute centers on funding provisions tied to the Department of Homeland Security. Schumer described the DHS language as inadequate to address alleged Immigration and Customs Enforcement abuses and said he would oppose the bill unchanged.
This resistance continues to slow negotiations connected to the CLARITY Act. Recent events intensified scrutiny of DHS funding after reports from Minneapolis described a fatal shooting involving federal agents and a 37 year old man. Schumer referenced the incident while reinforcing calls for stronger departmental oversight.
Industry signals add pressure to CLARITY Act talks
Beyond Capitol Hill, industry response has complicated the bill’s outlook, as earlier government shutdowns disrupted committee schedules and delayed review. Renewed shutdown fears now threaten to extend those setbacks and further slow legislative progress. Crypto industry sentiment also shifted noticeably after Coinbase distanced itself from the proposal. According to 36crypto, Coinbase Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong withdrew support for the current draft, stating the company prefers no bill over flawed legislation.
Additionally, stablecoin policy disagreements remain unresolved as concerns persist around market impact. According to Alex Thorn, yield bearing stablecoins could weaken U.S. banking competitiveness, while lawmakers have yet to reach meaningful compromise. Thorn added that an additional 4 to 6 weeks before another markup attempt may allow further discussion. However, markets continue reacting faster than policymakers, with Polymarket data showing traders positioned for disruption.
Escalating shutdown fears, unresolved budget disputes, and CLARITY Act delays continue to unsettle markets. As gridlock persists, expectations of instability increasingly shape political and market behavior.
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