- 21Shares outlines Solana’s upside potential while warning of downside risks
- Bull, base, and bear cases define Solana’s tightly controlled 2026 outlook
- Strong network activity fails to guarantee immediate price recovery for SOL
Solana returned to market focus after fresh projections outlined a defined price range for 2026. The outlook from 21Shares highlights a cautious stance that contrasts with earlier growth-driven narratives. Instead of signaling dramatic upside, the forecast frames Solana within realistic bull, base, and bear outcomes.
In the base case, Solana is expected to trade near $150, reflecting a 21% increase from current levels. Meanwhile, the bull scenario places the token at $197, representing a potential 57% upside. On the downside, the bear case estimates a decline toward $95, which would mark a 23% drop. According to 21Shares, these ranges aim to balance optimism with downside exposure.
At the time of the projection, SOL traded around $123, remaining far below its $294.33 all-time high. Hence, the forecast suggests that the market has not fully regained prior momentum. Instead, pricing expectations reflect moderation after an extended correction phase.
Beyond price levels, the analysis shifted attention toward Solana’s underlying economic structure. The report emphasized that network speed and throughput no longer dominate the investment discussion. Market participants now focus on whether sustained usage can translate into long-term value for SOL holders.
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Strong activity meets unresolved value capture concerns
Solana continues to stand out in raw blockchain activity, processing roughly 2.2 billion transactions every week, placing it ahead of most major layer-1 competitors. BNB Chain and Tron trail significantly, with about 108 million and 62 million weekly transactions. Only Internet Computer records higher activity, at roughly 2.6 billion transactions.
Additionally, Solana shows growing traction in U.S. dollar payment flows and institutional testing, leading to concerns around scalability largely fading from market discussions. However, the focus has shifted toward revenue durability and investor value alignment, as 21Shares notes that performance alone does not guarantee sustained price appreciation.
Short-term price action reflects this cautious tone, with SOL recently rebounding from a $118 low, indicating buyer interest at that level. However, immediate resistance appears near $131, where selling pressure may emerge, and a breakdown below $117 could expose the token to further downside toward $95.
On the upside, a move above key moving averages may keep SOL trading between $117 and $147. Such range-bound behavior aligns with a market reassessing risk than chasing rapid gains. Overall, the 2026 price path positions Solana between strong network usage and unresolved questions around lasting value creation.
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