- ChartNerd’s updated fractal analysis projects XRP between $8 and $27, based on historical Fibonacci extensions.
- Technical structure remains intact, with repeating consolidation–breakout patterns and strong EMA support.
- Improved conditions this cycle could support similar or larger upside if the fractal repeats.
Crypto market analyst ChartNerd has published an update to his fractal analysis from May 2025, outlining a potential long-term price pathway that could see the asset reach between $8 and $27 in the current market cycle.
In his latest update, the analyst argued that XRP’s historical behavior provides a strong technical framework for future expansion, particularly when viewed through Fibonacci extension levels. According to ChartNerd, XRP previously reached both the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions during its prior cycle, despite operating under significantly less favorable conditions.
At the time, regulatory uncertainty and weaker macroeconomic tailwinds limited institutional participation, yet XRP still completed a full technical expansion.
Fibonacci Extensions Point to $8–$27 Range
In the latest analysis, ChartNerd mapped Fibonacci extension levels from XRP’s earlier accumulation and breakout phases to its current structure. Based on this model, the analyst identified $8 as the approximate 1.272 extension target, while the 1.618 extension aligns near $27.
The analyst emphasized that these levels are not arbitrary price predictions but technical projections derived from XRP’s previous cycle behavior. ChartNerd noted that this time, XRP is entering the expansion phase with far stronger external conditions, including clearer regulatory positioning and improving macro sentiment across digital assets.
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$XRP Fractal Update – (May 2025) 🎯#XRP met both its 1.272 and 1.618 FIB extension in its prior cycle – WITHOUT the regulatory clarity and macro tailwinds that we’ve seen in the past year, which are MAJOR catalysts for expansion moving forward.
This Cycles FIBs = $8 – $27 🎯 https://t.co/lJ49j2Qhyw pic.twitter.com/354t0UAJ2z
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) January 3, 2026
Chart Signals Show Structural Continuity
ChartNerd’s analysis illustrates a multi-year XRP fractal, highlighting repeating phases of consolidation, breakout, retracement, and continuation. The structure shows XRP moving within ascending trend channels, followed by sharp impulsive moves that historically preceded major price expansions.
Key elements on his chart include a completed consolidation wedge, a breakout supported by long-term moving averages, and a pullback into the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone. This retracement area is marked as a “wick grab,” suggesting price briefly dipped into support before reclaiming higher levels, a behavior often observed ahead of continuation moves.
Additionally, the chart notes strong support from the monthly 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the idea that XRP remains structurally intact within its broader uptrend.
Source: ChartNerd/X
Macro Wave Structure Remains Incomplete
Another notable component of the analysis is the reference to an unfinished macro wave. ChartNerd labeled the current phase as “Macro Wave 5 Missing,” implying that XRP has not yet completed its final expansion leg within the broader cycle framework.
His chart also highlights “duration length extension,” suggesting that while this cycle may be taking longer to develop, the extended timeline could support a larger overall price move if historical fractals continue to play out.
Analyst Cites Improved Conditions as Key Difference
ChartNerd stressed that the current environment differs materially from XRP’s prior cycle. The analyst pointed to regulatory clarity, institutional infrastructure, and improving macro tailwinds as major catalysts that were absent during XRP’s last major run.
In that context, the analyst suggested that Fibonacci targets derived from the previous cycle may underestimate potential upside rather than exaggerate it. However, ChartNerd stopped short of assigning timelines, emphasizing that fractal analysis focuses on structure rather than short-term price action.
Cautious Optimism Remains Central
While the analysis outlines a bullish technical framework, ChartNerd framed the projection as a conditional roadmap rather than a guaranteed outcome. Market conditions, liquidity, and broader crypto sentiment will continue to influence XRP’s trajectory.
Still, the fractal update has added to growing discussion around XRP’s long-term positioning, with the chart suggesting that if historical patterns repeat under stronger fundamentals, higher Fibonacci extensions could once again come into focus.
Also Read: Jake Claver Warns: “Banks Are Quietly Loading XRP,” But Further Analysis Pours Cold Water on Hope
