- Analyst Chad Steingraber predicts U.S. spot XRP ETFs could absorb over 22.4 billion XRP in year one.
- ETF demand could trigger a supply crisis, with Steingraber warning that public supply may be depleted within a year.
- Spot ETFs must buy real XRP, meaning institutional inflows could create structural scarcity.
Prominent crypto analyst Chad Steingraber has issued a bold new projection suggesting that U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may rapidly absorb the token’s circulating supply within a year.
According to Steingraber, combined ETF inflows from the first wave of issuers could exceed 22.4 billion XRP within 12 months, nearly half of the asset’s publicly available supply. The projection comes amid intense anticipation surrounding multiple ETF applications from major asset managers following the SEC’s evolving regulatory stance toward crypto-based products.
Breakdown of Projected XRP Accumulation
Steingraber’s model calculates a one-year accumulation estimate by analyzing expected inflows from seven first-phase ETF sponsors, assuming current market conditions remain stable.
Projected 12-Month Accumulation by First 7 Funds
- Canary Capital: 1,865,845,440 XRP
- Bitwise: 2,843,601,888 XRP
- 21Shares: 7,109,004,720 XRP
- CoinShares: 63,507,109 XRP
- WisdomTree: 3,981,042,654 XRP
- Grayscale: 853,080,564 XRP
- Franklin Templeton: 5,687,203,680 XRP
Total for Year One (7 Funds): 22,403,286,055 XRP
Steingraber then extends the model to include a second phase of ETF issuers, averaging 3.48 billion XRP across five additional funds.
Also Read: Big News: Bitwise XRP ETF Set to Launch Today Creates Major Confusion, Here’s Why
XRP ETF FUND 1 YEAR PROJECTION
Assume current price, use 7 first phase funds combined then avg up to 12 funds for phase 2.
Canary – 1,865,845,440 XRP
Bitwise – 2,843,601,888 XRP
21Shares – 7,109,004,720 XRP
CoinShares – 63,507,109 XRP
WisdomTree – 3,981,042,654 XRP
Grayscale -… https://t.co/g8RTWiSSg6
— Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) November 19, 2025
Phase 2 Projection
- Average per Fund: 3,480,000,000 XRP
- Five Funds Combined: 17,400,000,000 XRP
Combined 12-Fund Total: 39,803,286,055 XRP
A Potential Supply Crisis?
If the projections hold, nearly 40 billion XRP could move into ETF custody within a year, an amount approaching the entire publicly circulating supply. Steingraber warns that under these conditions, XRP’s accessible supply would be effectively exhausted:
“The entire public supply will be gone in exactly 1 year unless the price of XRP dramatically increases to slow the acquisition rate.” The analyst suggests that only a significant rise in XRP’s market price could naturally limit ETF accumulation by making large-scale purchases increasingly expensive.
Why ETF Demand Matters
Spot ETFs require issuers to buy and hold actual XRP, unlike derivative-based products. With multiple heavyweight financial institutions preparing to compete for token reserves, analysts argue that demand pressure could generate a strong supply shock, one of the most bullish catalysts possible for any asset.
The potential introduction of dozens of institutional-grade funds could:
- Absorb substantial circulating supply
- Increase the difficulty of acquiring XRP on open markets
- Drive price appreciation through structural scarcity
Looking Ahead
Steingraber’s projection has sparked widespread debate within the XRP community. Some view the numbers as realistic given the scale of institutions entering the market, while others caution that ETF demand may adjust dynamically based on price movement and trading volume.
Nevertheless, the analysis underscores a growing narrative: XRP may be entering a new era of institutional accumulation, one that could reshape the token’s supply dynamics faster than many expected.
Also Read: XRP Floodgates: Here’s When $35 Billion AUM Grayscale XRP ETF Is Set to Launch
