What to know:
- ChartNerd says the $0.70 XRP decline scenario appears increasingly realistic.
- The analyst cites shifting market conditions and weakening macro structure.
- XRP still retains long-term bullish targets despite downside risks.
Crypto analyst ChartNerd has identified a growing risk facing XRP, arguing that a decline toward $0.70 can no longer be viewed as a low-probability outcome. In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that market conditions have shifted since late 2025, making the bearish scenario more credible than it was several months ago.
XRP’s $0.70 scenario gains traction
According to ChartNerd, the possibility of XRP falling to $0.70 was first discussed in December 2025. At the time, however, the analyst viewed it as an alternative scenario because most market participants expected the asset to continue climbing.
Several months later, that outlook has changed. According to ChartNerd, a move toward $0.70 is now much closer to reality as XRP continues trading below a major resistance zone that has limited upside momentum.
Despite highlighting downside risks, the analyst stressed that the long-term bullish structure has not yet been invalidated. Instead, he believes XRP remains within a broader re-accumulation phase that has developed over the past year.
The latest warning stems from ChartNerd’s analysis of XRP’s macro chart structure. The chart shows the asset maintaining a series of higher lows since the 2018 market peak. Consequently, the analyst believes XRP still retains important long-term support despite recent weakness.
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A key focus of the analysis is the 3-month Gaussian Channel, which ChartNerd believes XRP could revisit before beginning its next major expansion phase. Moreover, he explained that multiple closes below macro support would be needed before a more bearish outlook receives confirmation. Until then, the $0.70 target remains a possibility rather than a confirmed destination.
Major resistance still stands in XRP’s way
ChartNerd’s chart also identifies a critical resistance zone near the $3 level, which the analyst labeled as a ‘Break for Euphoria’ region due to its resemblance to the structure that preceded XRP’s explosive rally during the 2017 cycle.
According to the analyst, a successful breakout above this zone would significantly strengthen the bullish case. However, XRP has yet to produce the type of price action needed to confirm such a move.
Additionally, the chart outlines a scenario where XRP could revisit lower support levels before recovering and entering a period of accelerated growth. That possibility explains why the analyst continues monitoring both downside risk and long-term upside potential.
While the prospect of a decline toward $0.70 has gained credibility, ChartNerd maintains that XRP’s broader market structure remains intact. As long as macro support continues to hold, the analyst still sees a path toward much higher prices in a future expansion phase.
Conclusion
While ChartNerd views the $0.70 level as a growing risk rather than a certainty, he continues to believe XRP’s long-term re-accumulation structure could eventually support a breakout toward significantly higher valuations.
Also Read: Alert: XRP Holds Key Line as Analyst Signals Major Move to $1.25
