What to Know
- MorenoDV says Bitcoin’s next move depends on two on-chain indicators.
- STH MVRV entered historical bottom territory as short-term holders suffer.
- aSOPR nears seller exhaustion levels, but confirmation remains pending.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV has identified two on-chain indicators that could determine Bitcoin’s next major price move, as both metrics approach levels historically associated with important market turning points. While Bitcoin has entered a zone linked to previous bottoms, the analyst stated that confirmation of a lasting recovery still depends on signals from short-term holder profitability and investor spending behavior.
According to MorenoDV, the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value ratio, commonly known as STH MVRV, has fallen toward the 0.75 to 0.80 range. This metric measures whether investors who purchased Bitcoin in recent months are holding profits or losses relative to their average cost basis.
A reading of 1.0 represents a break-even pointing to the current levels indicate that many short-term holders are underwater. Historical data shows that previous moves into this range often coincided with periods when weaker market participants exited positions before prices stabilized.
However, MorenoDV noted that another trend deserves attention. Every major recovery since 2024 has produced lower highs and lower lows in the STH MVRV structure. Consequently, each rebound has attracted less demand than the previous one. This pattern suggests buying momentum has gradually weakened despite several recovery attempts. Moreover, the declining channel visible in the metric points to growing caution among market participants.
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Two on-chain signals could decide Bitcoin’s direction
Beyond STH MVRV, MorenoDV highlighted the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, or aSOPR, as the second indicator investors should closely monitor. This metric measures whether Bitcoin holders are spending coins at a profit or a loss. Values above 1.0 indicate profitable spending activity. In contrast, readings below 1.0 show that investors are realizing losses. According to MorenoDV, the seven-day moving average of aSOPR is currently approaching the 0.96 level.
That area has historically acted as a seller-exhaustion zone during several major market declines. As a result, the latest reading suggests many holders continue to sell under pressure. Similar conditions emerged before previous market recoveries. Nevertheless, MorenoDV stressed that reaching oversold territory alone does not confirm a bottom. Instead, Bitcoin’s next major move depends on whether both indicators can reclaim critical levels.
The analyst explained that aSOPR must recover above 1.0 and maintain that position for several sessions. At the same time, STH MVRV must also move back above 1.0, signaling that recent buyers have returned to profitability. Until those conditions are met, MorenoDV believes the market remains in a capitulation phase rather than a confirmed bullish regime.
MorenoDV’s analysis suggests Bitcoin is approaching a zone that has historically preceded durable market bottoms. However, both indicators still reflect ongoing stress among investors. While oversold conditions continue to develop, the analyst maintains that a confirmed recovery requires both aSOPR and STH MVRV to reclaim key profitability thresholds.
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