What to Know
- PlanB says Bitcoin could reach between $500K and $1M during the current halving cycle, citing Stock-to-Flow scarcity dynamics despite pullbacks.
- According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s previous $126,000 high was not the cycle’s final peak while realized price remains near $53,000 support.
- The analyst argued investor patience remains essential because historical pessimism has often preceded stronger Bitcoin recoveries within four-year market cycles.
On-chain analyst PlanB has reaffirmed his long-term Bitcoin forecast, saying the cryptocurrency could reach between $500,000 and $1 million before the current halving cycle ends. According to the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, Bitcoin’s recent price weakness remains part of its historical cycle, while the average price for this period could settle near $500,000.
According to PlanB, the market has not yet reached the most significant phase of the current cycle. He argued that investors should avoid treating temporary declines as confirmation that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory has changed.
The analyst noted that the April 2024 halving reduced Bitcoin’s new supply once again. Moreover, he said roughly 639 days remain before the current halving epoch concludes, leaving sufficient time for higher valuations to develop.
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PlanB says Bitcoin’s scarcity still points to higher prices
According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s previous local high of around $126,000 should not be viewed as the final peak of this cycle. Instead, he expects the strongest price expansion to occur later as the effects of reduced supply become more visible. His outlook remains tied to the Stock-to-Flow model, which measures Bitcoin’s scarcity by comparing existing supply with newly issued coins. Since each halving cuts the creation of new Bitcoin, the model projects a higher long-term valuation over time.
However, PlanB emphasized that the model does not identify exact market tops or bottoms. Rather, it estimates an average price level driven by Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity. Consequently, he maintained that Bitcoin could trade within a range of $250,000 to $1 million before the current halving cycle ends. Within that range, he expects approximately $500,000 to represent the cycle’s average valuation. Moreover, PlanB urged investors to remain patient instead of reacting to every correction. He argued that previous cycles also experienced significant pullbacks before producing much stronger rallies.
Analyst warns of possible volatility before the next rally
According to PlanB, Bitcoin could still establish another local low before beginning its next major advance. He pointed out that previous bear markets pushed Bitcoin below its realized price, which reflects the average acquisition cost of coins held across the network. That realized price currently stands near $53,000. PlanB explained that periods of widespread pessimism have historically marked the beginning of stronger recoveries.
Additionally, he referred to the market concept known as “maximum pain.” Under that scenario, a large number of traders could become increasingly bearish before Bitcoin reverses direction. According to PlanB, if market participants conclude that Bitcoin has entered a prolonged downturn, a powerful recovery could catch skeptics and short sellers off guard. He believes such a move could ultimately support the path toward his projected price range.
Conclusion
According to PlanB, Bitcoin’s recent correction has not changed the long-term outlook defined by the Stock-to-Flow model. He maintains that the current halving cycle still supports a potential move between $500,000 and $1 million, while urging investors to remain patient as the cycle progresses.
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