- Rare institutional accumulation signals align after more than one year
- Treasury wallets return as net buyers alongside allocator inflows
- Historical setups show Bitcoin lagging before explosive upside moves
Bitcoin is approaching a rare institutional alignment that previously preceded major price expansions, bringing institutional accumulation back into sharp market focus. According to analyst Charles Edwards, institutional capital flows have shifted decisively back into Bitcoin, with the Net Institutional Buying signal entering its sixth green phase since 2020.
Historically, this signal delivered powerful upside moves in most prior cycles, as four of the previous five green phases produced rallies of 390%, 68%, 61%, and 41%. However, one cycle failed and resulted in a 13% decline, highlighting that the signal is not flawless, even though the average gain across all appearances exceeded 109%.
At present, Bitcoin remains up just over 5% from recent levels, and analysts observe that price action has yet to mirror historical outcomes. If the average performance repeats, projections place Bitcoin between $186,000 and $196,000, positioning the asset close to the widely tracked $200,000 level.
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Treasury accumulation reinforces the primary signal
Alongside allocator inflows, a secondary confirmation has emerged from corporate treasury behavior, as Capriole reports the Buy Sell Ratio ROC turning positive. This change shows large holders have resumed net buying after a distribution phase, with entities such as Strategy, American Bitcoin, and other corporate wallets included.
Typically, treasury buyers favor long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation, hence their return often signals confidence in trend continuation. Previously, treasury accumulation flipped positive shortly before a sharp upward move, and as a result, analysts view the renewed activity as reinforcing the institutional signal.
Broader institutional alignment keeps upside pressure intact
Moreover, according to Charles Edwards, Ethereum treasury trends have turned strongly positive, indicating institutional accumulation supports both major digital assets. Additionally, ETF flow structures remain supportive, further tightening available supply as aligned components often build pressure beneath the surface.
Importantly, this setup does not guarantee immediate price acceleration, as timing differed across past cycles despite similar accumulation patterns. Still, institutional positioning contrasts with cautious retail sentiment, a divergence that has historically marked early stages of larger market moves.
Bitcoin now trades under conditions that previously preceded strong rallies, while sustained inflows will determine whether the price follows the same historical path.
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