- Bitcoin cycle structure signals potential late-stage market shift
- Monthly chart symmetry mirrors previous bull and bear patterns
- EGRAG Crypto refocuses on four year timing discipline
Bitcoin’s long term price structure is drawing renewed scrutiny after market analyst EGRAG Crypto revisited the asset’s historical four year rhythm. His latest commentary shifts attention away from macro narratives and back toward time-based cycle discipline.
That recalibration now frames the market around a potential structural turning point. According to EGRAG Crypto, he allowed broader themes such as the Trump Golden Age narrative and liquidity cycle discussions to influence his outlook. However, he admitted that Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle should have remained his core exit framework. He stated that charts demand discipline and historical grounding rather than emotional storytelling.
A review of the monthly chart reveals a repeating structural pattern that has defined Bitcoin’s previous expansions. Each bull phase lasted roughly 35 monthly candles from the bear market bottom to the macro peak.
That timeframe equals nearly three years of sustained upward movement. Subsequently, bear markets unfolded across 12 to 13 monthly candles before accumulation began again. Significantly, downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022 followed that same duration profile. Consequently, the current cycle appears advanced when measured against historical symmetry. This timing dynamic forms the basis of the warning embedded in the four-year framework.
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Monthly Structure Points to Late Cycle Risk
The monthly chart also tracks the 9, 50, and 100 exponential moving averages. During strong bull phases, Bitcoin consistently trades above the 9 EMA. Meanwhile, the 50 and 100 EMAs serve as macro support during corrective stages. At present, price remains above the longer-term averages, although momentum has softened near the shorter average.
Moreover, the chart outlines resistance zones near $107,000 and $175,000, while support levels appear near $65,000 and $48,000, reflecting prior structural pivots. These markers suggest that if the 35-bar symmetry completes, a decisive shift could follow.
According to EGRAG Crypto, a curveball scenario may still develop. Nevertheless, he emphasized that grounding analysis in historical truth offers clearer risk management. His commentary highlights the importance of cycle timing in assessing whether the market approaches a late expansion phase.
Bitcoin’s four-year structure has historically shaped both bull peaks and bear durations. As the monthly chart aligns with past timing patterns, traders increasingly focus on whether the next major shift approaches within this established cycle rhythm.
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