- Invisible QE could spark Bitcoin’s next major price surge.
- Federal Reserve actions may drive Bitcoin’s bull run, not halving.
- Hayes reveals stealth QE as Bitcoin’s next big catalyst.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, has put forward a new perspective on the potential drivers of Bitcoin’s next bull run. In his latest blog post, Hayes argues that the next surge in Bitcoin’s price may not come from the halving event, but rather from “Invisible QE”—a term he uses to describe the covert monetary policy actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
According to Hayes, these actions could have a more direct impact on Bitcoin’s price than the typical supply reductions triggered by the halving.
Hayes points out that the U.S. Treasury’s heavy bond issuance—around $2 trillion annually—combined with tight liquidity and rising interest rates, could push the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the market. He believes that this would likely happen through the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), a mechanism that provides cash to the bond market.
Although not officially labeled as Quantitative Easing (QE), Hayes argues that this liquidity boost acts in much the same way, ultimately finding its way into risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
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‘Invisible QE’ and Its Impact on Bitcoin
Hayes stresses that Bitcoin’s major bull markets in the past have aligned more with increases in global liquidity than with the halving cycle. He believes that the real driver of Bitcoin’s value is not its programmed supply cuts, but rather the expansion of liquidity in the global financial system. As liquidity rises, assets like Bitcoin often see significant price gains.
Furthermore, Hayes highlights the historical trend where periods of tight liquidity and high Treasury bond issuance have led to the Fed stepping in with liquidity injections to avoid market stress. According to Hayes, these actions, while not officially recognized as QE, indirectly support the “Invisible QE” thesis and can have a substantial effect on Bitcoin’s price.
As the U.S. Treasury continues heavy borrowing and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, Hayes predicts that the next Bitcoin price surge may be driven by the liquidity injections from the Fed, rather than the halving event.
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