- Traders see 30% chance Bitcoin hits $100,000 this month.
- Only 1% expect Bitcoin to surge beyond $150,000 in October.
- Bitcoin withdrawals exceed $4.8B as market optimism cools.
Bitcoin’s bullish run in October appears to be cooling as traders on Polymarket adopt a cautious stance. According to the platform, participants are assigning about a 30% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 this month. However, only 1% of traders believe the cryptocurrency will surge to $150,000 before the end of October.
At the same time, other prediction sources show the probability of Bitcoin ending October below $100,000 has climbed to between 34% and 52%. Currently, data from CoinMarketCap indicates that Bitcoin is trading near $110,959, representing a 3% rise in the last 24 hours, though it remains down roughly 3.5% compared to a week ago.
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Market Caution Grows as “Uptober” Momentum Fades
This cautious sentiment reflects the mixed environment across the broader crypto market. Bitcoin started the month with strong gains but later stumbled amid macroeconomic pressures and a historic liquidation wave that wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions. The once-promising “Uptober” rally, often associated with October’s historical crypto gains, now seems to be losing its shine.
In addition, the Financial Stability Board recently warned of “significant gaps” in global crypto regulations, intensifying investor uncertainty. Despite this, data shows a steady outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, signaling continued long-term accumulation. Since the start of October, withdrawals have surpassed 45,000 BTC, valued at roughly $4.8 billion, marking the lowest exchange balance in six years.
These market dynamics explain the tempered optimism reflected on Polymarket. While some traders still expect moderate gains, few are betting on a dramatic surge. With ongoing regulatory uncertainty, economic challenges, and the aftermath of large-scale liquidations, confidence in Bitcoin’s chances of a sharp October rally remains subdued.
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