XRP Faces Key $1.65 Test as Analyst Maps Most Likely Path to Breakout

What to Know

• XRP remains below the 50-month average as $1.65 resistance holds firm.
• EGRAG expects one final 88-month average retest before potential macro expansion.
• Breaking $1.65 activates $7.50 first, while $42 remains the long-term target.

Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO says XRP must reclaim the $1.65 price level before its next macro rally can begin. According to the analyst’s latest monthly chart shared on X, XRP started July below its 50-month Simple Moving Average, signaling that the cryptocurrency remains in a long-term consolidation phase despite preserving its broader upward structure.

According to EGRAG, previous market cycles followed a similar pattern before producing explosive price advances. As a result, he believes the coming months could determine whether XRP repeats its historical behavior or forms a different cycle altogether. Although XRP continues trading above its long-term ascending trendline, the analyst explained that bulls still need to regain the 50-month Simple Moving Average. Until that happens, the broader market structure remains cautious, even as long-term support continues holding.

Additionally, EGRAG highlighted the 88-month Simple Moving Average as another major level to monitor. He noted that XRP reached this moving average during both previous market cycles before beginning substantial upward expansions, making it a critical reference point in the current setup.

Also Read: Taiwan Passes Crypto Law Requiring Licenses and Tougher Penalties for Violations

EGRAG Assigns Highest Probability to 88 SMA Retest

According to EGRAG, the most likely scenario remains a final move toward the 88-month Simple Moving Average before XRP begins its next macro expansion. He assigned a 55% probability to that outcome, citing the similarities between the current chart structure and the patterns seen before the 2017 and 2021 rallies. Meanwhile, the analyst gave a 30% probability to an alternative scenario where XRP quickly reclaims the 50-month Simple Moving Average without revisiting the 88-month level. Such a development would indicate stronger buying pressure than previous cycles and suggest the market is front-running its historical pattern.

On the other hand, EGRAG assigned only a 15% probability to a more bearish outcome in which XRP falls below the 88-month Simple Moving Average. He explained that such a move would likely extend the current consolidation period before another sustained recovery could develop. Besides outlining those scenarios, the analyst emphasized that $1.65 remains the defining resistance level for XRP’s long-term trend. According to EGRAG, the cryptocurrency will remain in macro compression until buyers establish a confirmed breakout above that price.

Furthermore, the chart projects significantly higher targets once $1.65 is reclaimed. EGRAG identified $7.50 as the first major expansion objective. He also pointed to $42 as the long-term measured-move target if XRP follows a trajectory similar to previous market cycles. The monthly chart also shows XRP continuing to respect its long-term ascending trendline, suggesting that the broader bullish structure has not been invalidated despite recent weakness below the 50-month moving average.

Conclusion

EGRAG’s latest analysis places $1.65 at the center of XRP’s long-term outlook. According to the analyst, reclaiming that level would confirm the end of macro compression, while another test of the 88-month Simple Moving Average remains the highest-probability path before the next major expansion begins.

Also Read:  Bitcoin Falls Below Historic 200-Week Average as $320M Longs Get Wiped Out