What to Know
- CryptoQuant’s momentum model remains moderately bullish, while the Realized Price indicator shifts Bitcoin’s broader market outlook toward bearish conditions instead.
- Bitcoin trades below major moving averages as rising futures activity contrasts with neutral spot demand, highlighting lingering structural market weakness.
- Realized Price age bands remain inverted, indicating recent buyers lack conviction while long-term holders retain stronger positioning across Bitcoin’s network.
CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain has warned that Bitcoin’s recent rebound still lacks the structural strength needed to support a broader bullish trend. According to the analyst, one additional on-chain indicator changes the market outlook from moderately bullish to bearish, even as Bitcoin climbed toward $64,800 and momentum indicators improved.
Bitcoin traded around $64,792 after gaining roughly 1.6% over the past week. CryptoOnchain explained that the market has reached a “decision boundary,” where improving momentum conflicts with long-term valuation signals. Consequently, traders face a market showing stronger price action but limited structural confirmation.
The analysis showed that CryptoQuant’s seven-signal momentum model currently delivers a moderate bullish reading with four bullish votes out of seven. Rising Open Interest and stronger MACD readings support that outlook. However, adding the Realized Price Age-Band Crossover creates an eight-signal model that shifts the overall consensus to bearish. As a result, the model reduces its recommended market exposure from 100% to 30%.
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Realized Price model signals caution despite price recovery
According to CryptoOnchain, the main disagreement comes from Bitcoin’s underlying on-chain structure rather than its recent price movement. Although Bitcoin has recovered from recent lows, the Realized Price age bands remain in a bearish configuration.
The analyst noted that four of five age-band pairs remain inverted. Moreover, the largest divergence exists between coins held for one to three months and those held for six to twelve months. That spread has remained approximately 26.3% below longer-term holders since January, showing that recent buyers have not regained dominance.
Source: CryptoQuant
Besides the on-chain data, Bitcoin also trades below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. Those averages still form a death cross, leaving significant technical resistance above the current price. Meanwhile, Open Interest has increased to roughly 0.74 standard deviations above normal levels, reflecting renewed futures participation. However, Binance spot flows remain largely neutral, suggesting leveraged activity is growing faster than direct buying demand.
Conclusion
CryptoOnchain’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s improving momentum has not yet repaired its broader market structure. Until the Realized Price age bands normalize and stronger spot demand supports the rally, structural resistance remains the key factor shaping Bitcoin’s next major move.
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