Bitcoin Endless Rebounds: Pre-Halving Volatility Hallmark?

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Bitcoin Endless Rebounds: Pre-Halving Volatility Hallmark?

Last updated on May 18th, 2024 at 12:46 pm

Bitcoin slumped to $61,000 shortly after seeing bullish momentum in the $71,000 range. Why can this be a worrying sign for investors?

Following the weekend’s market downsurge, Bitcoin (BTC) marked the strengthening of the bearish sentiment, retesting at the $61k price zone. The correction bias followed a loud BTC rebound, taking the largest cryptocurrency into the $71,000 range. A major reason behind its price decline since the 2nd of April was huge profit realizations, amounting to over $2.7 billion.

For over a month, domination has been constantly wandering between bulls and bears. Is BTC posed for a long-term recovery, or is it just another stage of the pre-halving volatility?

Bitcoin’s $71,000 Swift Recovery: Reasons

IT Tech, an author for CryptoQuant, cited the realization of enormous BTC profits as one of the crucial reasons for the cryptocurrency’s recovery.

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Bitcoin’s $71,000 Swift Recovery: Reasons 

Bitcoin (BTC) realized profit by Short-term Holder Whale. Source: IT Tech/CryptoQuant

Despite this, IT Tech noted that Bitcoin experienced a drop in selling pressure as short-term holders have stopped realizing losses on the price correction. By contrast, BTC marked increased inflows into the accumulation addresses, making their reverses hit all-time highs.

Bitcoin’s $71,000 Swift Recovery: Reasons 

BTC inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: IT Tech/CryptoQuant

Additionally, IT Tech saw a strong BTC correlation with Tether (USDT) as a driving factor for Bitcoin’s uprising dynamics. New USDTs were minted in the recent past, which could have also contributed to BTC’s recovery above $70k. 

Apart from the technical factors, the analyst highlighted the change in long-term investors’ behavior, stressing the weakening BTC distribution. The atmosphere in the market indeed changed to more festive amidst the halving anticipation, being spurred by Greed and exchange activities. Companies from CoinMarketCap to WhiteBIT crypto exchange seem to foster the community, creating a win-win situation. 

Meanwhile, CoinDesk believes that the recent Bitcoin breakout comes from a higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report that highlights the U.S. economic resilience. For this very reason, upward dynamics were noted at Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold.

Read Also: Weekend Recap: Stablecoins Market Capitalization, Tether’s New Project and More

Halving Correction In Action?

Even though long-term holders’ movements in the last seven days were lower than average, signaling that they were willing to hold their assets, CryptoQuant data revealed high exchange netflows. This indicates an increased selling pressure and unveils the correction, overseen by the investors. The short-term pessimism is marked via Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions ratio, which registered a sharp uptick.

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Halving Correction In Action?

Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Nonetheless, the long-term indicators reveal a neutral bias for BTC. Exponential Moving Averages of lengths 50, 100, and 200 register a straight movement ahead, while RSI remains in a bearish zone with a downtick, just as EMA 20.

Bitcoin Endless Rebounds: Pre-Halving Volatility Hallmark?

BTC/USDT 1D chart. Source: WhiteBIT Trading View

Crucially, the whole crypto market slumped amidst the outburst of Iranian aggression towards Israel, bringing greater collapse for the Bitcoin price.

Long-Term Optimism

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, sees $80,000 as the next closest target for Bitcoin. In a note sent to his clients on April 8, he stated:

“If the breakout is bullish, which we suspect, bitcoin could climb above 80,000 during the next few weeks – if not earlier. Buying at $69,280 and setting a stop loss at $65,000 appears appropriate”.

Bitcoin Endless Rebounds: Pre-Halving Volatility Hallmark?

BTC/USD 1D chart. Source: CoinDesk

To support Thielen’s thesis, CoinDesk noted a bullish flag pattern on the BTC/USD daily chart. A symmetrical triangle, often called a coil, represents consolidation within a narrowing price range. The market typically builds energy during the consolidation, which is eventually unleashed in the direction in which the range is resolved. More often than not, symmetrical triangles end with a bullish breakout. 

By contrast, a renowned analyst Rekt Capital predicted Bitcoin rejection from its blue Range High and foresaw the consolidation ahead.

“Bitcoin is thus sandwiched between the old all-time highs of $69000 (support) and the highs from two weeks ago of $71300 (resistance). There’s scope for consolidation here going forward, “ – he wrote in his X post.

bitcoin Long-Term Optimism 

BTC/USD 1W chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital

By and large, the Bitcoin chart has all the chances to come further north, but it will be gotten through the increased volatility, as can be proven by a long-term holder’s movement.

Bitcoin Endless Rebounds: Pre-Halving Volatility Hallmark?

Bitcoin’s Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). Source: CryptoQuant

Read Also: Interview With James Bachini on Combating Phishing Attacks in Crypto

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I am a crypto-enthusiast with 5-year experience in copywriting. Worked for web3 companies and cryptocurrency exchange, which drove my keen interest towards the industry. Been writing for different publications on cryptocurrency, technology, economics and politics.