- Bitcoin trades below short term cost levels, weakening market structure and confidence.
- Analyst warns risk off sentiment limits rallies as holders sell rebounds.
- Long term support holds, suggesting pullback within broader bullish trend.
Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim key short term levels has intensified concerns about near term price stability across the crypto market. Trading around $87,400, Bitcoin remains below major short term cost bases, weakening its technical structure. According to Axel Adler Jr., this setup reflects a classic short term downturn driven by stressed short term holders. He shared this view on X, pointing to growing risk off behavior among recent buyers.
Importantly, Adler explained that when price trades below the realized price of short term holders, losses dominate sentiment. Consequently, many recent buyers look to sell into rebounds rather than support sustained rallies. This behavior often turns former support zones into resistance, limiting upside momentum.
Moreover, Adler highlighted the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index dropping near 40. According to him, this level signals distribution conditions rather than accumulation. Hence, upside attempts struggle unless new demand enters the market with conviction.
At present, Bitcoin trades below every meaningful short term cost basis. As a result, price recoveries face consistent selling pressure. Historically, Adler noted that bull trends resume only after short term holders capitulate or price reclaims their entry levels. Therefore, he sees stabilization above $90,000 as a necessary step to restore healthier structure.
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Long Term Support Holds as Macro Pressure Builds
Beyond short term weakness, Adler emphasized the importance of Bitcoin’s aggregate realized price near $56,300. According to him, this metric represents the average cost paid by all holders. Remaining above it has historically preserved broader bull market conditions. Significantly, Bitcoin still trades well above this long term support. This positioning suggests the current pullback fits within a wider uptrend. However, external pressures continue shaping investor behavior.
Global macro developments have contributed to the cautious tone. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike increased uncertainty around global liquidity conditions. Consequently, risk assets like crypto have shown higher sensitivity to currency and yield volatility. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have slowed from earlier peaks. Without strong institutional demand, the market struggles to absorb ongoing selling. This shift has reduced upside follow through during recovery attempts.
Futures market data supports this cautious narrative. The total value of open futures contracts has declined, signaling reduced leverage among traders. According to Adler, this reflects risk reduction rather than panic driven exits. Taken together, these factors align with Adler’s assessment of a fragile short term structure. Bitcoin faces resistance driven by underwater holders, while long term support remains intact, keeping broader market expectations restrained.
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