Bitcoin Stalls Below Expansion Zone as US Spot Demand Weakens

What to Know

• Bitcoin’s DTMM reading of 2.03 places the asset between accumulation territory and the stronger market expansion threshold identified by analysts.
• Short-term holders remain profitable because Bitcoin trades roughly 13% above their $69,371 realized price support level during current consolidation.
• Negative Coinbase premiums show weak American spot demand while neutral funding reflects limited directional conviction across derivatives markets for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain identifies Bitcoin’s market as a consolidation phase between undervalued accumulation and stronger expansion. Bitcoin traded at $78,419 while its Delta-Thermo Market Multiple registered 2.03, showing limited conviction behind the cryptocurrency’s recovery.

According to GugaOnChain, the reading places Bitcoin above accumulation territory but below the threshold confirming broader market expansion. Readings below 1.5 represent accumulation periods, while movements above 2.5 signal expansion supported by improving demand and capital deployment.

Bitcoin’s 2.03 reading therefore remains above the accumulation boundary but below the 2.5 expansion threshold. Moreover, the chart marks 3.5 as a distribution zone, where elevated valuations can encourage experienced holders to realize profits.

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Short-Term Holders Preserve a Crucial Market Floor

Short-term holder data offers structural support because recently active investors remain profitable despite Bitcoin’s uncertain price movement. Their realized price stands at $69,371, representing the average acquisition cost for coins controlled by this monitored group.

Bitcoin trades approximately 13% above that level, protecting recent holders against immediate unrealized losses and panic-driven selling. Additionally, the cohort’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio stands at 1.13, confirming that average profits remain modest.

Nevertheless, a sustained decline below $69,371 could place recent buyers underwater and increase selling pressure during another downturn. Derivatives data also reflects limited directional conviction, with Bitcoin’s global funding rate holding near a neutral reading of 0.0056.

Negative Coinbase Premium Restrains Expansion Prospects

Spot demand presents a greater obstacle because the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative across daily and hourly timeframes. Since Coinbase supports many American investors, this discount suggests US spot buyers are not leading Bitcoin’s recovery.

Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin requires stronger spot purchases, positive Coinbase premiums, and sustained DTMM growth before the expansion argument gains confirmation. A DTMM move above 2.5 would strengthen the bullish structure, particularly if spot volume increased while derivatives funding remained controlled. Bitcoin remains balanced between profitable holder support and weak American demand, leaving the market without a confirmed expansion phase.

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