Bitcoin’s $68,900 Support Test Could Decide Whether Recovery Reaches $96,500

What to Know

• Bitcoin has reclaimed traders’ estimated cost basis near $68,900, with MorenoDV_ identifying sustained support as crucial to confirming its recovery.
• Historical recoveries in 2019, 2020 and 2023 showed similar patterns, but these comparisons provide no statistical guarantee of another advance.
• Bitcoin’s upper reference band near $96,500 could encourage profit-taking, while losing baseline support would leave its recovery vulnerable to selling.

Bitcoin has reclaimed traders’ estimated cost basis near $68,900, a level analyst MorenoDV_ identifies as crucial to sustaining its recovery. According to his analysis, holding this zone would strengthen the bullish signal and support another advance toward the upper band.

His chart places the Trader On-chain Realized Price near $68,900, with the upper reference band around $96,500. Both levels track changes in active traders’ cost basis, meaning they move over time rather than represent fixed price targets.

MorenoDV_ highlighted the importance of Bitcoin maintaining its position above the baseline, rather than simply crossing it during a rebound. A decisive reclaim puts active traders back into aggregate profit, suggesting buying demand has overcome resistance around their acquisition costs.

Below that threshold, this group holds unrealized losses, which can encourage selling when a recovery offers an opportunity to exit. Traders approaching breakeven may therefore supply Bitcoin into rebounds, creating resistance that buyers need to absorb before the recovery strengthens.

Bitcoin’s recovery above the baseline marks an important transition, but the analyst emphasized that sustained trading above it remains essential. A pullback would test whether the former resistance level attracts enough buying to act as support during the next correction.

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Historical Recoveries Highlight Support Tests and Selling Risk Near the Upper Band

MorenoDV_ compared the chart with similar transitions in 2019, 2020 and early 2023, when Bitcoin recovered above traders’ realized price. Those episodes included advances toward the upper band and subsequent tests of the underlying cost basis during the recovery process.

The analyst noted differences in timing across those periods and cautioned that the comparisons do not establish a statistical success rate. Their value lies in illustrating how support developed around traders’ cost basis, without guaranteeing that Bitcoin will repeat previous recoveries.

Near the upper band, Bitcoin trades at a substantial premium to active traders’ estimated buying costs, increasing incentives to realize gains. Profit-taking can slow the advance as buyers attempt to absorb that supply, making demand strength important beyond the initial breakout.

Source: CryptoQuant

A retreat toward Trader Realized Price would present a different test, bringing Bitcoin back toward the cohort’s estimated breakeven level. Holding that zone and rebounding would suggest buyers are absorbing supply, strengthening the case for another advance toward the upper band.

Sustained trading below the baseline, followed by a failed reclaim, would instead indicate that breakeven selling remains stronger than buying conviction. Under that scenario, MorenoDV_’s analysis would point to a vulnerable recovery rather than confirmation that former resistance has become support.

Bitcoin’s position above traders’ cost basis supports the recovery assessment, while a successful retest would provide stronger confirmation of demand. The $96,500 upper band remains an evolving reference zone, where profit-taking could challenge buyers if Bitcoin advances toward that level.

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