What to Know
- EGRAG Crypto projected Bitcoin’s macro bottom could align with recurring halving cycles and established historical market structure patterns again broadly.
- Monthly 50 SMA and 88 SMA repeatedly marked support across previous bear markets strengthening the analyst’s long-term outlook.
- The analysis argued institutional adoption alone does not invalidate Bitcoin’s historical cycle structure or recurring market behavior patterns.
Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has projected that Bitcoin could reach its next macro market bottom in late 2026 based on recurring halving cycles and long-term technical indicators. According to EGRAG Crypto, Bitcoin has historically established major cycle lows roughly 800 to 1,000 days after each halving event. The analyst argued that the current market structure continues to follow that historical pattern despite growing claims that Bitcoin’s behavior has permanently changed.
According to EGRAG Crypto, the analysis combines historical timing with key technical levels rather than relying on market sentiment. The analyst noted that each cycle has produced new reasons why Bitcoin should break from past behavior. However, the chart suggests that price structure has remained remarkably consistent over multiple market cycles.
The monthly chart identifies three completed cycles where Bitcoin formed macro bottoms within a similar timeframe following each halving. Data shared by the analyst shows that the first cycle bottom arrived about 1,003 days after the 2012 halving. Likewise, the 2018 bear market bottom formed roughly 973 days after the 2016 halving. Moreover, Bitcoin reached another macro low approximately 914 days after the 2020 halving.
Based on the same historical sequence, EGRAG Crypto projected that the current cycle could produce its next major bottom during the final months of 2026. Although the exact timing cannot be confirmed, the analyst believes the recurring pattern deserves attention until market data proves otherwise.
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Long-term moving averages reinforce the historical cycle
Besides the halving timeline, EGRAG Crypto highlighted Bitcoin’s monthly 50-period and 88-period simple moving averages as another important signal. According to the chart, previous bear markets reached this moving average zone before Bitcoin established long-term bottoms.
Bitcoin entered the same support region during the 2015 market decline before beginning a sustained recovery. Similarly, price revisited that area during the 2018 bear market before reversing higher. The pattern appeared once more during the 2022 cycle, strengthening the analyst’s view that the moving averages have repeatedly marked important support.
The latest chart shows Bitcoin trading near the monthly 50 SMA while gradually approaching the 88 SMA. According to EGRAG Crypto, that setup closely resembles previous cycle formations where long-term selling pressure weakened before broader recoveries emerged.
Analyst rejects changing market narratives
EGRAG Crypto also emphasized that time remains as important as price when evaluating Bitcoin’s macro structure. The analyst explained that price identifies where support develops, while historical timing helps identify when major turning points have repeatedly occurred.
The analysis also challenged the popular belief that Bitcoin has entered a completely different market cycle. EGRAG Crypto acknowledged that institutional participation, exchange-traded funds, and broader adoption have transformed the digital asset market. However, the analyst maintained that historical structure deserves greater attention until price action establishes a different long-term trend.
Bitcoin’s recurring halving cycle and its relationship with the monthly 50 SMA and 88 SMA continue to point toward a possible macro bottoming window in late 2026. While future market conditions could alter the outcome, the historical pattern highlighted by EGRAG Crypto remains intact and continues to provide a framework for evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term direction.
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