- Citi lowered Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets amid weakening ETF demand outlook.
- Delayed crypto legislation reduced institutional confidence and weakened expected capital inflows.
- Macro recovery still depends on larger institutional allocations, according to CryptoQuant CEO.
Wall Street banking giant Citi has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing weaker exchange-traded fund demand and stalled progress on U.S. crypto legislation. The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $82,000 within the next year, while Ethereum’s target has been reduced to $2,200.
The revised outlook marks a notable shift from Citi’s projections released in December 2025. At that time, the bank expected Bitcoin to climb to $143,000 under its base-case scenario, with a bullish projection of $189,000 if institutional demand accelerated.
However, changing market conditions have forced Citi to reassess those expectations. According to the bank, ETF inflows have reversed this year, while lawmakers have yet to deliver the regulatory clarity many institutional investors anticipated.
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Citi sees slower institutional participation ahead
Citi now assumes Bitcoin ETFs will record no net inflows over the next 12 months. The bank also noted that many ETF investors remain underwater because Bitcoin trades below levels seen before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Moreover, analysts said the lack of legislative progress has weighed heavily on market sentiment. Earlier forecasts relied on the expected approval of digital asset legislation, including the proposed Clarity Act, which was expected to encourage broader institutional participation.
Instead, that momentum has slowed considerably. Consequently, Citi believes institutional capital may remain on the sidelines until regulators provide clearer rules for the digital asset industry. The bank also pointed to broader macroeconomic conditions. It explained that fears surrounding currency debasement have eased as higher interest rates continue limiting demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has struggled to regain its earlier momentum throughout 2026. The cryptocurrency climbed above $96,000 earlier this year before falling to around $60,000 by late February. Although buyers pushed prices back near $80,000 in late May, renewed selling pressure erased those gains. As a result, Bitcoin recently returned to the $59,000 range, reflecting continued weakness across the broader market.
Macro recovery still depends on larger capital inflows
Despite Citi’s cautious outlook, some market observers continue to see room for recovery if institutional demand returns. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin could still experience a broader macro breakout under the right conditions. He noted that significantly larger institutional allocations would be necessary to support another sustained rally.
Citi expects subdued ETF activity and slower regulatory progress to limit Bitcoin’s upside. The bank’s latest forecast reflects a more conservative view as digital asset markets continue adjusting to weaker capital flows and ongoing policy uncertainty.
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